Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cowboys vs. Rams
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-130/+100).
Pros
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Rams are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their standard game plan.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 64.3% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Tyler Higbee has gone out for fewer passes this year (85.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (69.7%).
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 63.3 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
- The Los Angeles O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Tyler Higbee’s 31.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season illustrates a noteable decline in his receiving skills over last season’s 38.0 rate.
- With a poor 65.0% Adjusted Catch Rate (23rd percentile) this year, Tyler Higbee places among the worst possession receivers in the league among TEs.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
