Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Colts vs. Saints
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-115) after it opened @ 58.5 (-112).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 136.2 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
- The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Colts this year (a staggering 61.7 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
- The predictive model expects Michael Pittman to accrue 9.4 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Colts have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The leading projections forecast the Colts to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.8% pass rate.
- Michael Pittman’s 68.0% Adjusted Catch% this year reflects a significant reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 71.4% figure.
- This year, the daunting New Orleans Saints defense has conceded a feeble 58.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 4th-best rate in the league.
- This year, the strong Saints defense has surrendered the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a feeble 7.2 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards
74
Receiving Yards
