NFL

Bets

October 29, 2023

Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 16.5 yards (-115/-105).

Pros

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 60.0% of their downs: the 9th-highest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are expected by the predictive model to call 67.9 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The New Orleans Saints have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This year, the porous Colts defense has been gouged for a massive 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Cons

The New Orleans O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.49 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards