MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Colts vs. Saints
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 16.5 yards (-115/-105).
Pros
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 60.0% of their downs: the 9th-highest rate among all teams this week.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are expected by the predictive model to call 67.9 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- This year, the porous Colts defense has been gouged for a massive 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 3rd-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The New Orleans O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.49 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
