Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jake Ferguson from EV Insight

Jake FergusonReceiving Yards

Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).

Pros

The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
The predictive model expects Jake Ferguson to garner 5.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The Rams defense has yielded the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (64.0) to TEs this year.

Cons

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cowboys to pass on 56.9% of their opportunities: the 11th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Jake Ferguson’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 84.5% to 76.8%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards