NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Harrison BryantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Browns vs. Bengals
Right now, Harrison Bryant’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-117/-117).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-117) after it opened @ 28.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Browns are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Harrison Bryant to total 5.3 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Harrison Bryant to be much more involved in his team’s passing offense this week (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.9% in games he has played).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Harrison Bryant’s possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.5% to 67.6%.
- Harrison Bryant’s pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, accumulating a mere 5.24 yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 mark last season.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 45.0) to tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
