Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Below, I’m using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Top Points Prop
P.J. Washington o14.5 points
(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
P.J. Washington is coming off a 31-point performance in an overtime win over the Warriors. He was able to play 40 minutes in that game, 35 of which came in regulation, which was easily a season high. It’s all about the minutes for Washington, who has had 17+ points in every game he has cracked 30 minutes or more this season. My model projects him for right around 31 tonight in a matchup against the Kings who are top 10 in pace and bottom 8 in defensive efficiency so far this season. Additionally, they are allowing the 3rd-highest 3PM% in the NBA to opposing forwards.
Top Assists Prop
Tyrese Haliburton o29.5 Points + Assists
(-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tyrese Haliburton continues to be a player my model is higher on than the market, but what’s not to like? Haliburton is averaging 10 assists per game, and he has gone over 24+ points in five of his seven games so far. We just missed out on his double-double prop last time out in this same exact matchup against the Nets, but I love going back to the over on his Points + Assists here. My model has him for 24+ points and over 12 assists tonight.
Top Rebounds Prop
Myles Turner o6.5 rebounds
(-142, FanDuel)
Some ugly juice on this line here, but if Myles Turner is able to get back to full minutes, this line is probably a rebound too low. In the only game Turner played without restrictions, he racked up 10 rebounds, and even in his other game this year where he played just 24 minutes, he grabbed six boards. I like Turner to play 30+ minutes off his rest day here, and I have him for nearly nine rebounds.
Top Underdog Pick
Giannis Antetokounmpo to record triple-double
(+1100 DraftKings)
This is as good a game environment as you can ask for against the Pistons, who have had a terrible defense so far and are playing extremely fast. Giannis is only averaging six assists per game so far, but he has two games of 8+ assists already, so we know the upside is there for the Greek Freak.
