Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Gerald Everett

Gerald EverettReceiving Yards

Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-115) after it opened @ 25.5 (-110).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Chargers to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.6% pass rate.
At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Los Angeles Chargers.
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
The Bears defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (38.6 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast Gerald Everett to accrue 4.0 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers offensive approach to skew 2.7% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
With a 8.5-point advantage, the Chargers are heavily favored in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal game plan.
After accruing 31.0 air yards per game last year, Gerald Everett has been a disappointment this year, now boasting 16.0 per game.
Gerald Everett’s 20.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 28.2.
Gerald Everett’s 27.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year reflects a substantial regression in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 37.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards