NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Donald ParhamReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Chargers vs. Bears
Right now, Donald Parham’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-125/-105).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Chargers to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.6% pass rate.
- At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Los Angeles Chargers.
- Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
- The Bears defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (38.6 per game) this year.
- When talking about air yards, Donald Parham grades out in the towering 76th percentile among tight ends this year, accruing an impressive 23.0 per game.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Chargers offensive approach to skew 2.7% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- With a 8.5-point advantage, the Chargers are heavily favored in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal game plan.
- Donald Parham’s 14.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year indicates a significant reduction in his receiving ability over last year’s 21.0 figure.
- Donald Parham’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 83.6% to 67.8%.
- With a poor 6.0 adjusted yards per target (23rd percentile) this year, Donald Parham ranks among the worst tight ends in the pass game in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
