Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Andrew OgletreeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Colts vs. Saints
Right now, Andrew Ogletree’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 14.5 (-110) after it opened @ 13.5 (-120).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 136.2 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
- The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Colts this year (a staggering 61.7 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Indianapolis offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Andrew Ogletree rates as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a remarkable 8.63 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- The Colts have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The leading projections forecast the Colts to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.8% pass rate.
- With a lackluster 63.6% Adjusted Catch% (19th percentile) this year, Andrew Ogletree ranks among the least sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to tight ends.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 36.0) to tight ends this year.
- This year, the formidable Saints defense has yielded a measly 63.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 4th-best rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
