Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 275.5 (-115) after it opened @ 270.5 (-115).
Pros
- At the moment, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football (63.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Dolphins.
- The leading projections forecast Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 36.3 passes in this week’s contest, on balance: the 10th-most out of all QBs.
- Tua Tagovailoa has passed for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (296.0) this season than he did last season (253.0).
- Tua Tagovailoa’s 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this year marks an impressive boost in his passing accuracy over last year’s 64.0% rate.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the league versus the New England Patriots defense this year (74.0% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- At the present time, the 9th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume.
- The New England Patriots defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
284
Passing Yards
284
Passing Yards
