Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gardner MinshewPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Colts vs. Saints
Right now, Gardner Minshew’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+110/-143).
The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (+110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-113).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 136.2 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
- The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Colts this year (a staggering 61.7 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Indianapolis offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Gardner Minshew’s 66.8% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys an impressive improvement in his passing accuracy over last season’s 58.0% rate.
Cons
- The Colts have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The leading projections forecast the Colts to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.8% pass rate.
- Gardner Minshew has attempted a measly 28.2 passes per game this year, ranking in the 19th percentile among quarterbacks.
- This year, the fierce Saints defense has surrendered a puny 209.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-best in the league.
- This year, the tough New Orleans Saints defense has allowed a mere 62.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
257
Passing Yards
257
Passing Yards
