NFL

Bets

October 26, 2023

Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 236.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 60.0% of their downs: the 9th-highest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are expected by the predictive model to call 67.9 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The New Orleans Saints have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this week’s contest, Derek Carr is expected by the predictive model to total the 5th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.5.

Cons

The New Orleans O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
With a subpar 6.18 adjusted yards-per-target (19th percentile) this year, Derek Carr ranks among the least effective quarterbacks in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards