Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Colts vs. Saints
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 236.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 60.0% of their downs: the 9th-highest rate among all teams this week.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are expected by the predictive model to call 67.9 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- In this week’s contest, Derek Carr is expected by the predictive model to total the 5th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.5.
Cons
- The New Orleans O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- With a subpar 6.18 adjusted yards-per-target (19th percentile) this year, Derek Carr ranks among the least effective quarterbacks in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards
263
Passing Yards
