Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The FTN team uses Adam Pfeifer’s Week 8 fantasy football game-by-game breakdown to identify some of the key player props to bet on in this week’s Commanders/Colts game.
The Commanders (3-4) visit the Colts (3-3-1) this Sunday with a new signal caller under center for the Colts. Sam Ehlinger fills in for an injured Matt Ryan, which could mean an upgrade for the Indy offense.
Washington Commanders vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Bets
Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders
Sunday, Brian Robinson drew the start for the second consecutive week, carrying the ball 20 times for 73 yards, adding two receptions for 13 yards. He logged 47% of the snaps… Robinson is now averaging a healthy 19.5 touches per game over his last two contests, and this doesn’t feel like a game where the Commanders will be chasing points, which should lead to 15-plus touches once again for the rookie running back.
Pick: Robinson Over 15.5 Carries (-104)
The Colts defense ranks eighth in DVOA defending the run, but that shouldn’t stop Washington from wanting to pound the rock Sunday. In his first start of the season, Washington QB Taylor Henicke threw for just over 200 yards and 2 touchdowns on over 30 attempts. He’s an upgrade over Carson Wentz, but Ron Rivera is still going to want to lean on the run game, as Henicke threw one INT and had another pick-six nullified because of a penalty last week. Brian Robinson has gone over 16 carries in his last two games and should continue to be Washington’s feature back.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Taylor only logged 55% of the snaps, but it didn’t help that the Colts had 12 snaps in two-minute drills, all of which (unsurprisingly) went to Nyheim Hines. I’d expect the Colts to get back to feeding Taylor 20-plus touches this week
Pick: Taylor Over 17.5 Carries (-110)
The Commanders rank 29th in pass DVOA, and fourth-best defending the run this season but I expect the Colts to lean on their run game as well Sunday, with sixth round pick Sam Ehlinger making his first NFL start. Jonathan Taylor only had 19 carries last week but has hit this in three of five games this season. I’m expecting this to be a close game with both coaches looking to play it rather conservative with their new QBs, as it’s a three-point spread with a total under 40.
