Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Royce Freeman from EV Insight

Royce FreemanRushing Yards

Right now, Royce Freeman’s rushing yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).

Pros

This week’s line indicates a running game script for the Rams, who are favored by 3 points.
As far as a defense’s effect on tempo, the Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed opposing teams to play 10th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) this year at 27.01 seconds per snap.
Royce Freeman has garnered 40.2% of his offense’s run game usage last year, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
This year, the porous Pittsburgh Steelers run defense has been torched for a massive 143.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 5th-most in the league.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Rams to run on 38.9% of their downs: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.
As it relates to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, Pittsburgh’s collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Rushing Yards