Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Royce FreemanRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Rams vs. Steelers
Right now, Royce Freeman’s rushing yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).
Pros
- This week’s line indicates a running game script for the Rams, who are favored by 3 points.
- As far as a defense’s effect on tempo, the Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed opposing teams to play 10th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) this year at 27.01 seconds per snap.
- Royce Freeman has garnered 40.2% of his offense’s run game usage last year, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
- This year, the porous Pittsburgh Steelers run defense has been torched for a massive 143.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 5th-most in the league.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Rams to run on 38.9% of their downs: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
- Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.
- As it relates to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, Pittsburgh’s collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Rushing Yards
39
Rushing Yards
