Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Patriots vs. Bears
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-115/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-115) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots are an enormous 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to accumulate 12.6 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
- The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (72.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).
- Opposing squads have run for the most yards in the NFL (168 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 46.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.7 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a much smaller part of his team’s run game this week (43.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.1% in games he has played).
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards
58
Rushing Yards
