Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Eagles vs. Dolphins
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-110).
Pros
- In this contest, Raheem Mostert is expected by the model to position himself in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs with 13.3 rush attempts.
- Out of all RBs, Raheem Mostert ranks in the 85th percentile for carries this year, making up 52.4% of the workload in his offense’s rushing attack.
- The Miami O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football last year in run-blocking.
- Raheem Mostert has run for many more adjusted yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (54.0).
- Raheem Mostert’s ground efficiency has improved this year, accumulating 6.00 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.77 figure last year.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to run on 38.3% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.83 seconds per play.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 65.0 per game) vs. the Eagles defense this year.
- The Philadelphia defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
