Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for David Montgomery from EV Insight

David MontgomeryRushing Yards

Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-137) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to garner 14.7 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles rank as the 7th-worst DT corps in the league this year with their run defense.

Cons

The Bears are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
David Montgomery has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (46.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards