Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Broncos vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (-120) after it opened @ 18.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.2 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
- Tyler Conklin has run a route on 72.9% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
- Tyler Conklin has been among the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 34.0 yards per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
