Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Cowboys vs. Lions
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-117) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a huge 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- T.J. Hockenson’s 40.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
- The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson has accrued many fewer receiving yards per game (41.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
- T.J. Hockenson’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.4% to 57.0%.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 35.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
