Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Dolphins vs. Steelers
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-115) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to garner 3.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
- Mike Gesicki’s receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.2% to 85.3%.
- Mike Gesicki’s receiving effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, notching 10.89 yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.85 rate last season.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 57.0 plays per game.
- Mike Gesicki has gone out for fewer passes this season (59.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.7%).
- Mike Gesicki has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
