Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki from EV Insight

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-115) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to garner 3.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
Mike Gesicki’s receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.2% to 85.3%.
Mike Gesicki’s receiving effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, notching 10.89 yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.85 rate last season.

Cons

The Dolphins are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 57.0 plays per game.
Mike Gesicki has gone out for fewer passes this season (59.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.7%).
Mike Gesicki has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards