Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-127) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).

Pros

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are anticipated by the projection model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
With a top-tier 74.3% Route Participation Rate (85th percentile) this year, Hunter Henry has been as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.
This week, Hunter Henry is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 81st percentile among TEs with 4.8 targets.
Hunter Henry has posted far more air yards this year (44.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).

Cons

With a 59.1% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-least pass-centric team in football has been the Patriots.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with worse passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased ground volume.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 31.7 per game) this year.
The Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Hunter Henry’s 65.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a a noteable drop-off in his receiving talent over last year’s 72.5% mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards