NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Patriots vs. Bills
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-127) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).
Pros
- An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are anticipated by the projection model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
- With a top-tier 74.3% Route Participation Rate (85th percentile) this year, Hunter Henry has been as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.
- This week, Hunter Henry is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 81st percentile among TEs with 4.8 targets.
- Hunter Henry has posted far more air yards this year (44.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
Cons
- With a 59.1% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-least pass-centric team in football has been the Patriots.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with worse passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased ground volume.
- Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 31.7 per game) this year.
- The Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- Hunter Henry’s 65.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a a noteable drop-off in his receiving talent over last year’s 72.5% mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
