Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Patriots vs. Bears
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-117) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to accrue 3.6 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
- The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- Hunter Henry’s ability to pick up extra yardage has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 6.08 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 2.48 figure last year.
- The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Patriots are an enormous 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.7 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
