Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hayden Hurst from EV Insight

Hayden HurstReceiving Yards

Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 30.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 66.1% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Hayden Hurst has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (74.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to accrue 4.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
Hayden Hurst has posted a monstrous 22.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Hayden Hurst has been among the bottom tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging just 3.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 19th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.29 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards