Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-129) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Garrett Wilson has been a key part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 21.5% this year, which ranks in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
Garrett Wilson has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an impressive 53.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, catching just 58.9% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile among wide receivers
Garrett Wilson has been among the worst WRs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards