Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Eagles vs. Dolphins
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 4th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.0 per game) this year.
- Durham Smythe’s 81.3% Route Participation Rate this season marks a a noteworthy gain in his passing offense workload over last season’s 27.1% rate.
- Durham Smythe’s 24.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year conveys a a significant improvement in his receiving skills over last year’s 11.0 figure.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.83 seconds per play.
- When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Philadelphia’s collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
17
Receiving Yards
17
Receiving Yards
