Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- With regard to a defense’s influence on tempo, at 27.70 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 10th-fastest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- In this contest, Drake London is predicted by the model to secure a spot in the 77th percentile among wideouts with 7.2 targets.
- Drake London profiles as one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an outstanding 58.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.1% of their chances: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Drake London’s 53.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 66.6.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
