NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Patriots vs. Bears
Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Bears are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to accrue 7.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
- Darnell Mooney’s ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten a boost this season, averaging 10.35 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.28 mark last season.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
- Darnell Mooney has posted quite a few less air yards this year (76.0 per game) than he did last year (88.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
