Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darnell Mooney from EV Insight

Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards

Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Bears are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to accrue 7.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
Darnell Mooney’s ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten a boost this season, averaging 10.35 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.28 mark last season.

Cons

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
Darnell Mooney has posted quite a few less air yards this year (76.0 per game) than he did last year (88.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards