Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Patriots vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 21.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 4.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
- Cole Kmet’s talent in picking up extra yardage have been refined this season, compiling 9.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.97 rate last season.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
- Cole Kmet has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
