Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Ryan Tannehill from EV Insight

Ryan TannehillPassing Yards

Right now, Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 212.5 (-142) after it opened @ 216.5 (-115).

Pros

Ryan Tannehill has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a stellar 7.89 yards-per-target while ranking in the 85th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the NFL against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year (73.5%).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in football.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Ryan Tannehill to attempt 30.8 passes this week, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 7th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards