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Chris Meaney
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Patriots vs. Bears
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 160.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 160.5 (-110) after it opened @ 164.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- The Chicago Bears offensive line has given their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The New England Patriots pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
- Justin Fields has passed for quite a few less yards per game (135.0) this season than he did last season (161.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
184
Passing Yards
184
Passing Yards
