Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 252.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 252.5 (-104) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 8th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 36.9 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 10th-most yards in football (268.0 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.

Cons

The Raiders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 28.78 seconds per snap.
Derek Carr’s throwing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 60.6%.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league vs. the Houston Texans defense this year (62.0%).
The Houston Texans cornerbacks project as the 6th-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
295
Passing Yards