Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-135) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The model projects the Chargers offensive gameplan to skew 2.2% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.
- The leading projections forecast Austin Ekeler to total 12.6 carries in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
- Austin Ekeler has generated 62.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the NFL when it comes to running backs (90th percentile).
Cons
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 36.6% of their plays: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Austin Ekeler has been a much smaller part of his offense’s run game this year (40.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (54.8%).
- When it comes to blocking for ball-carriers (and the significance it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Chargers ranks as the worst in the NFL last year.
- The Cowboys defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best DE corps in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards
58
Rushing Yards
