NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Saints vs. Bengals
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 21.5 (-127) after it opened @ 16.5 (-120).
Pros
- The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 5th-fastest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.44 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Juwan Johnson’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 63.2% to 52.0%.
- Juwan Johnson’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, notching a measly 6.99 yards-per-target compared to a 9.21 rate last season.
- Juwan Johnson has been among the weakest tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.90 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 10th percentile.
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
