WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Titans vs. Ravens
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-114) after it opened @ 30.5 (-115).
Pros
- The model projects the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to lean 4.0% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
- This game’s line suggests a passing game script for the Titans, who are -5-point underdogs.
- The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
- In this game, Chigoziem Okonkwo is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.0 targets.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has been a much bigger part of his offense’s pass game this season (17.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (10.8%).
Cons
- At the present time, the 4th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (57.6% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Tennessee Titans.
- The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
- The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 20.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year marks a an impressive reduction in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 27.0 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
