Week 6 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

It was a frustrating Week 5 for our NFL moneyline picks. 

Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud executed a beautiful late fourth-quarter drive to put the Texans up 19-18 with under two minutes left at Atlanta, only to see Desmond Ridder drive the Falcons for a game-winning field goal on the next possession. 

The Titans saw Indianapolis starting quarterback Anthony Richardson leave the game in the second quarter and be replaced by the more pass-heavy Gardner Minshew. The Colts veteran backup finished with an uber-efficient 11-for-14 stat line and defeated the Titans 23-16. 

Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

Each week I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two, or even three underdogs I like for the upcoming schedule of games.

Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdogs for Week 6 of the 2023 season!

Week 6 NFL Moneyline Underdog Picks

Chicago Bears +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings

+128, FanDuel Sportsbook

Chicago appears to have righted the ship with two big performances from quarterback Justin Fields. The Bears’ starting quarterback has thrown four passing touchdowns in consecutive contests and now faces a Minnesota defense that has allowed the 12th-most passing yards and ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. 

The Vikings offensive metrics are superior to the Bears across the board, but they will likely be without their most valuable weapon Sunday. All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson is reportedly going on IR with a hamstring injury, changing the dynamic of this offense. Veteran K.J. Osborn has been underwhelming while rookie Jordan Addison has a wide range of weekly outcomes. Per our FTN Weekly Fantasy Finishes Tool, Addison entered Week 5 as is the WR43 with a mind-blowing WR125 finish in Week 4. His performance in Week 5 was much improved (WR16), but how will he perform with the best opposing cornerback in coverage?

Minnesota has won the last four matchups with Chicago but faced Nathan Peterman in Chicago in their second matchup of 2022. In that game, the Bears secured the No. 1 overall pick with a loss, giving Chicago every reason to post minimal resistance. The Bears should build over last week’s huge performance at Washington, and this Minnesota team is trending in the wrong direction, without their star player. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.28 Units

Houston Texans +1.5 vs. New Orleans Saints

+106, FanDuel Sportsbook

Find me a team that has benefitted from an easier schedule than the Saints:

• Week 1: Beat Tennessee 16-15 with 3 interceptions from Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill
• Week 2: Barely beat Carolina 20-17 on the road with a horrific game from Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young
• Week 3: Blew a 17-0 lead at Green Bay, losing 18-17
• Week 4: Blown out at home by Tampa Bay 26-9
• Week 5: Defeated a broken New England team 34-0 on the road, enjoying three Mac Jones turnovers and a defensive touchdown

I’m fading the Saints again as road favorites at Houston, against a Texans team that should have three straight victories. Houston crushed Jacksonville 37-17 on the road in Week 3, destroyed Pittsburgh 30-6 at home in Week 4, and suffered a last-second loss at Atlanta last week. The Texans offensive line is getting healthier and Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has been incredible. Stroud has thrown for 1461 yards in five games, with seven touchdowns, and has yet to throw an interception or lose a fumble. 

Look for the Texans pass rush to disrupt New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr. The Saints have allowed the fourth-most sacks this season (17), and Carr is not a mobile quarterback. In their last home game, Houston sacked Pittsburgh stationary quarterback Kenny Pickett three times, while not allowing a sack to the aggressive Steelers pass rush. 

I have little faith in a Saints offensive line especially on the road against DeMeco Ryans revamped defense. With Stroud continuing his efficient play, and the Houston offensive line finally getting healthy, I’ll grab the Texans as slight home underdogs against an overrated New Orleans team. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.06 Units