Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Fields from EV Insight

Justin FieldsPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-110) after it opened @ 181.5 (-110).

Pros

This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Justin Fields’s 232.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season conveys a a material gain in his throwing ability over last season’s 149.0 figure.
With a fantastic 7.62 adjusted yards-per-target (82nd percentile) this year, Justin Fields ranks as one of the most efficient passers in the NFL.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in football versus the Vikings defense this year (80.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 49.7% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Chicago Bears.
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually prompt lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.
In this week’s game, Justin Fields is expected by the predictive model to total the 6th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 28.6.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bears grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
199
Passing Yards