Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Breece Hall from EV Insight

Breece HallRushing Yards

Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-136/+104).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (+104) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).

Pros

Among all running backs, Breece Hall grades out in the 79th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 40.5% of the workload in his offense’s ground game.
Breece Hall’s rushing efficiency (5.90 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (92nd percentile among running backs).
Breece Hall has done a better job at picking up extra ground yardage this year, accumulating 6.16 yards-after-contact vs a 4.12 mark last year.
The opposing side have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the league (183 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Cons

The Jets will be forced to use backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jets are projected by our trusted projection set to call just 61.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The New York Jets have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 49.5 plays per game.
The Jets O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL last year at run-game blocking.
Breece Hall’s 47.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season conveys a a remarkable regression in his rushing ability over last season’s 66.0 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards