WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Broncos vs. Jets
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-136/+104).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (+104) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- Among all running backs, Breece Hall grades out in the 79th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 40.5% of the workload in his offense’s ground game.
- Breece Hall’s rushing efficiency (5.90 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (92nd percentile among running backs).
- Breece Hall has done a better job at picking up extra ground yardage this year, accumulating 6.16 yards-after-contact vs a 4.12 mark last year.
- The opposing side have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the league (183 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.
- The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
Cons
- The Jets will be forced to use backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jets are projected by our trusted projection set to call just 61.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The New York Jets have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 49.5 plays per game.
- The Jets O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL last year at run-game blocking.
- Breece Hall’s 47.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season conveys a a remarkable regression in his rushing ability over last season’s 66.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
