Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Schultz from EV Insight

Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (+106/-145).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-145) after it opened @ 28.5 (-119).

Pros

The projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
The predictive model expects Dalton Schultz to accrue 4.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
This year, the anemic Falcons defense has yielded a whopping 58.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 2nd-most in the league.

Cons

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans as the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.7% pass rate.
Dalton Schultz has put up quite a few less air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Dalton Schultz’s 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 39.7.
Dalton Schultz’s 22.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season indicates a a substantial decrease in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 38.0 figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards