Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Falcons vs. Texans
Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (+106/-145).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-145) after it opened @ 28.5 (-119).
Pros
- The projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
- The predictive model expects Dalton Schultz to accrue 4.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
- This year, the anemic Falcons defense has yielded a whopping 58.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 2nd-most in the league.
Cons
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans as the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.7% pass rate.
- Dalton Schultz has put up quite a few less air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
- Dalton Schultz’s 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 39.7.
- Dalton Schultz’s 22.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season indicates a a substantial decrease in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 38.0 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
