NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to accumulate 9.6 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
- Travis Kelce has notched many more air yards this year (76.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).
- Travis Kelce’s 57.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 49.4.
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Travis Kelce has accumulated many more receiving yards per game (88.0) this year than he did last year (59.0).
Cons
- The Chiefs are an enormous 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards
87
Receiving Yards
