NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Saints vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 18.5 (-139) after it opened @ 21.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to garner 4.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
- Noah Fant has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (50.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (76.4%).
- Noah Fant has posted far fewer air yards this season (10.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
- Noah Fant has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (15.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
- Noah Fant’s pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, averaging a mere 5.36 yards-per-target compared to a 7.41 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
