Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 246.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 246.5 (-105) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Trevor Lawrence has thrown for many more yards per game (245.0) this season than he did last season (213.0).
Trevor Lawrence’s passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 58.9% to 66.3%.

Cons

The Jaguars are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Houston Texans defense this year (64.3%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
230
Passing Yards