WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jaguars vs. Texans
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 246.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 246.5 (-105) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Trevor Lawrence has thrown for many more yards per game (245.0) this season than he did last season (213.0).
- Trevor Lawrence’s passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 58.9% to 66.3%.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Houston Texans defense this year (64.3%).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
230
Passing Yards
230
Passing Yards
