Week 5 fantasy flames: Kelley bolts into top-20 RB conversation

Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points; RB: 12 fantasy points [10 for shockers], WR: 11 fantasy points: TE: 10 fantasy points; .5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 4 Lames on Twitter @NoisyHuevos.

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

(7% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $6,000)
Matchup: at NO
Vegas line/Total: NO -8, 52

Overshadowed by the COVID-19 chaos of Week 4, New Orleans trotted out a defensive unit featuring players seemingly pulled from a drunken stupor while meandering down Bourbon Street. Minus a whole host of starters, including corners Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins, the ragtag group, weary and vulnerable, moseyed onto Ford Field and were swiftly taken advantage of by Matthew Stafford and his cohorts. On the year, the Saints have allowed 7.4 pass yards per attempt, 253.0 pass yards per game, 2.8 pass touchdowns per game and the fifth-most fantasy points to signal callers. Regardless of whether the Saints’ usual starters are discharged from the infirmary, Herbert is a top-12 QB in Week 5.

Since his promotion into the lineup post-Tyrod Taylor lung stabbing, the bazooka-armed rookie has fired upon the opposition with several high-caliber rounds. He needs to reduce a couple ticks on the fastball in the short field, but his downfield zip, pocket polish, overall command and opportunistic scrambles have greatly impressed. Through three games, he ranks QB9 in adjusted completion percentage and has posted 8.7 pass yards per attempt and exceptional across-the-board production when pressured. Unfazed. His 93.8 deep-ball passer rating indicates some greenness, but QB9 in fantasy points per game since Week 2, the former Duck isn’t some dawdling Daffy. Expect him to fly high in his first primetime showcase.

Fearless forecast: 301 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 15 rushing yards, 20.5 fantasy points

Joshua Kelley, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

(23%; $5,600)
Matchup: at NO
Vegas line/Total: NO -8, 52

When Austin Ekeler’s hamstring popped last week in Tampa, hearts throughout Fantasyland immediately sank. Pint-sized. Wonderfully skilled. Gregarious. Lovable. He was a popular early second-round pick for myriad reasons. However, sidelined indefinitely, his exit swings open the door for Kelley, a rookie, who in a complementary role, has garnered considerable flex appeal in challenging formats. His underlying profile (2.60 YAC per attempt; 13.6% missed tackle percentage) isn’t extraordinary, but he’s displayed with measurable downhill power while flashing useful hands as a receiver. He’ll split work with Justin Jackson, but 15-plus touches per game is a strong likelihood until Ekeler returns. Working behind a robust offensive line that ranks No. 6 in adjusted line yards allowed, he’s primed for a highly employable multi-game run, provided he can suppress the occasional fumblitis.

As discussed with Herbert above, the Saints trotted out a bunch of defenders who presumably crossed picket lines to join the cause. Whether they return close to full strength is anyone’s best guess. No matter their capacity, the matchup warrants your attention. New Orleans has yielded just 3.6 yards per carry, 115.0 total yards per game and five combined scores to RBs. However, middling in adjusted line yards allowed (No. 15), the outward appearance is a bit of a facade. In a contest Anthony Lynn will want to ground and pound early, Kelley has excellent odds of splashing the zone.

Fearless forecast: 17 carries, 64 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 17 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.6 fantasy points

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team

(34%; $5,000)
Matchup: vs. LAR
Vegas line/Total: LAR -9.5, 45.5

An enigma entering the season, Gibson, who logged an unreal 33 missed tackles on 77 career college touches with Memphis, was a leap of faith for many fantasy drafters. Adrian Peterson’s dismissal acted as a clearing agent, but the youngster’s inexperience and minimal usage understandably prompted questions. Operating as the unrivaled top option in the backfield, he, however, is quickly emerging as the centerpiece in a Washington offense in dire need of playmakers outside Terry McLaurin. So far, he’s registered a 2.66 YAC per attempt, forced a missed tackle on 25.9% of his touches, tallied the 13th-highest yards created per touch mark and sits at RB16 in rush yards over expected percentage. Solid. Now finally getting more involved in the pass game, he’s a rocket shooting toward Uranus. Pleasurable.

This week the greenhorn is in a prime position to fuel your every fantasy desire. Los Angeles, despite having one of the game’s premier maulers, Aaron Donald, continues to exhibit much elasticity. The Rams rank middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed at the position, but their second-to-last placement in adjusted line yards surrendered according to the FTN Daily DL tool tells a darker tale. Overall, L.A. has given up 4.8 yards per carry, 150.8 total yards per game and three combined TDs to RBs. With Peyton Barber mercifully phased out and J.D. McKissic merely a change of pace, and Kyle Allen, who loved dumping off to Christian McCaffrey in Carolina last season, now at the controls, Gibson is sure to display some chutzpah at home.

Fearless forecast: 14 carries, 52 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 26 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.8 fantasy points

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers

(16%; $5,300)
Matchup: vs. MIA
Vegas line/Total: SF -8.5, OTB

Welcome to “Name the Starting San Francisco QB”! Contestant No. 1 owns the handsomeness of a yacht-riding playboy from the south of France. He has an affinity for porn stars and displays remarkable inconsistency. Contestant No. 2 hails from Brett Favre U and sports multiple single-game records in an NFL debut. His mystifying pick sixes — see the Philadelphia game — have drawn the ire of Mitchell Trubisky. Finally, Contestant No. 3 boasts a last name all sophomoric minds find irresistibly funny. He showcases a strong downfield arm, though questionable decision-making. … Regardless if it’s Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens or C.J. Beathard under center in Week 5, Samuel, who moved fluidly in his lineup return last Sunday night, is trustworthy. On 25 snaps, he touched the rock four times totaling 45 yards. Expect his workload to rise in Week 5.

In a game most believed would overheat the scoreboard, Miami played laudable defense against Cookin’ Russell Wilson and Friends last Sunday. Despite their meritorious efforts, on paper, the ‘Fins remain out to sea. They’ve surrendered the highest pass yards per attempt average (9.3) of any team in the NFL. In total, five receivers have reached 70 yards against them. Samuel, who ranked WR2 in YAC per reception a season ago, is exceptional at gaining separation from defenders. Whether sparring with CBs Xavien Howard (87.5 passer rating allowed) or Noah Igbinoghene (146.8), he should churn out at least a WR3-level line in 12-team leagues.

Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 55 receiving yards, 18 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, 15.3 fantasy points

Hunter Renfrow, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

(19%; $4,900)
Matchup: at KC
Vegas line/Total: KC -12, 56

In appearance identical to a follically challenged fanalyst nearly double his age, Renrow is a “Get Roman” client in the making whose awkward GIF game conjures endless chuckles. However, not blessed with the SPARQ score of your Whopper-chiseled uncle, the Raiders receiver is crafty, artful and slippery routinely exposing defenses underneath. With Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards banged up the past couple weeks, he tallied 11 receptions for 141 yards on over 20% of the team’s target share (17 in total). Since the rookies are still recovering, Renfrow and Darren Waller should again captivate Derek Carr’s attention from start to finish, this time in what could be a scoreboard-chasing affair at KC — if, in light of recent COVID-19 news, this game is played.

The Chiefs secondary, fighting through various injuries, hasn’t folded. Obviously playing against future first-ballot Hall of Famer Brian Hoyer enhances the stinginess, but KC has conceded 6.5 pass yards per attempt and the fewest fantasy points to WRs. Thanks to Tyrann Mathieu (66.7 passer rating allowed), they’ve also placed slot assignments in a headlock, giving up the fewest yards to the position in the NFL. Still, Renfrow’s craftiness finding soft spots in zone coverage and ability to consume hashes post-catch could lead to appreciable gains in a contest with a likely lopsided script. Plus, you know DC Steve Spagnuolo will throw everything at Waller. If you’re looking to play the contrarian card in DFS …

Fearless forecast: 6 receptions, 62 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.2 fantasy points

Shocker special (under 10% started)

Brian Hill, RB, Atlanta Falcons

(1%; $4,000)
Matchup: vs. CAR
Vegas line/Total: ATL -2.5, 54

When the running back ahead on the depth chart sports partially mummified knees, you’re always a player of interest for fantasy football devices. Hill, cemented behind Todd Gurley, should command your attention this week and beyond. Pulling away as the secondary option for Dirk Koetter’s offense, he’s witnessed a slight uptick in snap share the past couple of weeks, taking advantage of additional touches gained. On just over 20% of the opportunity share, he amassed horrendous 1.95 yards after contact per attempt and forced one missed tackle on 26 touches. Still, 8-12 grips this week could bear fantasy fruits.

The Fightin’ Sir Purrs aren’t exactly nimble defending the run. Checking in at No. 20 in adjusted line yards, they’ve given up 4.6 yards per carry, 160.0 total yards per game, eight total touchdowns and the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. Gurley, along with Hill — who did register a couple of red-zone opportunities Monday against Green Bay — could be gameplan centerpieces with Julio Jones hurting (hammy) and Matt Ryan struggling.

Fearless forecast: 8 carries, 32 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 17 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 11.9 fantasy points

Bonus shocker: Gus Edwards, RB, BAL (Line: BAL -13.5; DK: $4,000) — One-dimensional rushers are usually a money-torching move, but when matched against a defense in the running for the official “Hello Kitties” designation it’s a +EV investment. Edwards, who’s well-established on Greg Roman’s RBBC carousel, is a likely double-figure carrier slated to pound one of the softest run defenses in the league. Bank on the YAC per attempt pacesetter (4.44) steamrolling his way to impactful numbers against a Bengals defense conceding 5.1 yards per carry and 135.3 rush yards per game to RBs. Aaron Jones zealots looking for a one-week fix should debate his services. (FF: 10-56-1, 11.6 fantasy points)

Bonus flames (under 60% started)

QB: Daniel Jones, NYG (Line: Dal -9; DK: $5,400) — The second-year passer, absolutely putrid through four weeks, is at the top of my (expletive) list. Emitting more stank than your bowels post green-chili-smothered bean burrito, he’s not even within the galactic orbit of my top-10 preseason expectation. How rancid has Jones been? He’s QB21 in adjusted completion percentage and QB30 in end-zone percentage (3.4%). Taking only a few shots downfield (4-for-8 on passes of 20-plus yards), he repeatedly crumbled behind a Giants line bottom barrel in adjusted line yards allowed Weeks 1-4. However, if an antidote for suckiness exists, it’s the Cowboys. Little D has yielded 7.5 pass yards per attempt, 257.0 pass yards per game, 2.8 passing touchdowns per game and the eighth-most fantasy points to signal callers. Most importantly, Dallas tucks inside the bottom third in pressure percentage. In a game with plenty of shootout appeal, Jones, if given time to plant and fire, could finally deliver a QB1 line in 12-team leagues. (FF: 266-2-1, 34-0, 21.0 fantasy points)

RB: Chase Edmonds, ARZ (Line: ARZ -7.5; DK: $4,700) — Hair on fire while wearing a shirt soaked in gasoline while a flaming fireball descends on your location. That’s the level of panic Kenyan Drake fanatics are currently experiencing. Given the incumbent’s woeful inefficiency, it’s possible Edmonds earns an increase in snap share. Three times he’s surpassed 12% in team target share peaking at 19.4% in Carolina last Sunday. With Drake and his abhorrent 2.31 YAC per attempt somehow commanding RB1 touches, it’s high time for Edmonds to receive consistent double-digit grips. Bury your loyalty, Kliff Kingsbury. Facing a laughable Jets team already in the process of becoming scrap metal, he’s worth flexing. New York has given up 4.5 yards per carry, 152.8 total yards per game, six total TDs and the ninth-most fantasy points to RBs. (FF: 7-30-4-22-1, 13.2 fantasy points)

WR: Justin Jefferson, MIN (Line: SEA -7; DK: $5,500) — Apologies in advance. Peppery takes on Jefferson in this space will be ceaseless over the next several weeks. His schedule through Week 13 — the final tuneup for most leagues before the fantasy playoffs — is a cakewalk. Top-10 in yards per target, yards per route run and YAC per reception, the rookie, off consecutive 100-yard efforts, is morphing into a reliable weekly WR2. Seattle, down Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar, performed admirably, by its low standard, last week in Miami. Still, the Seahawks have allowed a mind-blowing 8.2 pass yards per attempt, 408.5 passing yards per game and the most fantasy points to WRs. Whether lining up against Dunbar (2.00 yards per snap allowed), Tre Flowers (130.6 passer rating) or Shaq Griffin (1.49 yards per snap), the Viking should leave the competition featherless. (FF: 5-82-1, 16.7 fantasy points)

WR: Jamison Crowder, NYJ (Line: ARZ -7.5; DK: $5,800) — The Jets, rudderless prop planes in almost every facet, are again coasting toward a top draft pick, one they will inevitably bungle. If there is a bright spot, it’s Crowder. Back from a brief hamstring hiatus, he immediately regained his rightful position as Sam Darnold’s weapon of choice. On 10 targets versus Denver, he grabbed seven passes for 104 yards. This week slated to square off with the NASCAR-paced Cardinals, he’s at worst a RB3 in 12-team 0.5 PPR leagues. His primary matchup, slot corner Byron Murphy, has allowed only an 84.8 passer rating and 1.26 yards per snap to his assignments. He isn’t the most vulnerable, but volume and a presumed negative gamescript can soften any hardened defender. (FF: 6-70-1, 16.0 fantasy points)

TE: Mo Alie-Cox, IND (Line: IND -2.5; DK: $4,200) — Whether it's slapping the orange in VCU black and gold or chewing up real estate in Indy blue and white, Alie-Cox is a beast. Blossoming into a legitimate TE1 even in 10-team formats, he’s developed into a Philip Rivers favorite. Yes, he’s running fewer routes, which could further decrease with Trey Burton back in the fold, but he’s a red-zone fixture, a plus-sized target who’s a poor man’s Antonio Gates. Currently top-five in multiple analytics including yards per target (14.9), yards per catch (17.6) and YAC per reception (8.1), he’s also scribbled a 38.5 red-zone target share. Warring with a Browns team beatable underneath, he’s a strong candidate to find the end zone for the third straight week. If only the Colts would play him on at least 60% of the team’s snaps … (FF: 3-29-1, 10.4 fantasy points)

Bonus flame: Devonta Freeman, RB, NYG (Line: DAL -9; DK: $4,600) — Featuring two Giants on this list is crossing the Rubicon. Everything could absolutely go wrong. Freeman, working behind the worst offensive line in the league, has tallied a hideous 1.56 YAC per attempt through two games. Blame the long layoff, but he’s simply not the same starting lineup staple of yesteryear. Still, this is Dallas, a collection of defenders who couldn’t wrap up a sprinting toddler. The ‘Boys have yielded 4.7 yards per touch and 154.0 total yards per game to rushers. The veteran, off 37 snaps played and 15 touches in Week 4, somehow delivers a resourceful line. (FF: 13-52-5-28-1, 16.5 fantasy points)

Super bonus flame: Robby Anderson, WR, CAR (Line: ATL -2.5; DK: $5,900) — Hey, what’s that bear doing? Anderson may have no clue he plays for a cat-costumed franchise, but his high-level execution on the field can’t be questioned. In Joe Brady’s aggressive vertical attack, he’s raced past D.J. Moore seizing WR1 honors. With five starters unavailable in Atlanta’s secondary, Anderson could penetrate the WR1 ranks in fantasy. The destitute Falcons are rubbish defending the pass giving up 8.5 yards per attempt and the 10th-most fantasy points to WRs. Anderson, No. 6 in yards per route run and No. 2 in yards after the catch, deep-fries the hapless birds. For discount shoppers, a Teddy Bridgewater/Anderson stack is finger-licking good. (FF: 7-101-1, 19.6 fantasy points)