NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Patriots
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-130/-102).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-102) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 41.1% run rate.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has earned 42.6% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
- The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 47.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (76th percentile).
- Rhamondre Stevenson has been among the leading RBs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a stellar 4.17 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 90th percentile.
Cons
- The New England Patriots will be starting backup QB Brian Hoyer in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Patriots are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
- The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Rushing Yards
45
Rushing Yards
