Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Panthers vs. Cardinals
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-135) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to total 17.6 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
- Christian McCaffrey has picked up 69.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (97th percentile).
- The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller piece of his team’s run game this week (60.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (75.0% in games he has played).
- The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- The Arizona Cardinals defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
- The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
