Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Patriots
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-111/-123).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-123) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- Aaron Jones has been given 42.0% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 76th percentile among RBs.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
- Aaron Jones has generated 53.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (83rd percentile).
- Aaron Jones’s rushing effectiveness has been refined this season, averaging 6.69 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 4.69 mark last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-least run-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.9% run rate.
- The Green Bay Packers have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 58.4 plays per game.
- The New England Patriots defensive tackles project as the 5th-best group of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
