Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Ian ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Panthers vs. Cardinals
Right now, Ian Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (+100/-122).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 14.5 (-122) after it opened @ 15.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
- Ian Thomas has garnered a colossal 11.4% of his offense’s air yards this year: 88th percentile among tight ends.
- Ian Thomas has been among the best TEs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a stellar 6.17 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 78th percentile.
- The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (86.7%) vs. TEs this year (86.7%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Ian Thomas’s possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 64.8% to 58.6%.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 41.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
17
Receiving Yards
17
Receiving Yards
