Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeVante ParkerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Patriots
Right now, DeVante Parker’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New England Patriots will be starting backup QB Brian Hoyer in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Patriots are a giant 9.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects DeVante Parker to notch 7.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects DeVante Parker to be a much bigger part of his offense’s pass game this week (23.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.9% in games he has played).
- DeVante Parker has totaled a colossal 93.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.9% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
- DeVante Parker’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 55.9% to 44.1%.
- The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 138.0) to WRs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
