Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Watson from EV Insight

Christian WatsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Watson’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-115) after it opened @ 37.5 (-118).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast Christian Watson to accrue 6.6 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Christian Watson has accrued a whopping 66.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
Christian Watson has been among the weakest WRs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 1st percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards