Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Keenan Allen from EV Insight

Keenan AllenReceiving Yards

Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 85.5 (-110) after it opened @ 84.5 (-110).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Chargers as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Chargers offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.41 seconds per play.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may slide.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Raiders defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
Keenan Allen has been among the leading pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 93.0 yards per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.

Cons

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Las Vegas’s group of LBs has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
105
Receiving Yards